To answer the question lets look at the Brexit vote.  Many have claimed that the UK’s referendum voted Brexit because of immigration. I would claim that this reason is minor and did not significantly impact the result.  Brexit in my mind was due to 2 reasons:

  1. People have come to the realization that globalization and open trade is not all that great for them. Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig, 2 economists, who analyzed the results of the referendum claim that area that voted leave are the same areas hardest hit by globalization. Where globalization took jobs people voted for leave.
  2. The vote was also a vote of rejection. Not just the EU but about everything, no wage growth for years, lower levels and quality of public services, no job growth, a political system not working them, the rich getting richer and on top of that austerity. The Brits wanted to make a statement and a statement they did.  The vote was more about anger and frustration about the past and the present than the future. It was the ultimate f*** you vote.

How does this compare to the US election? Surprisingly everything.

Poll after poll has shown that Americans view the economic system as being rigged. A poll from Marketplace and Edison Research (link to poll) found that 71% of Americans believe the economic system is rigged in favor of certain groups. Americans are more and more angry at the system that they believe is no longer working for them but for the rich and the powerful.  Look at the Princeton study on how the US is an Oligarchy  and frankly ask around and that view that the system is not made for the little guy is quite clear. This is not just a white issue but a minority issue as well. From the lowest incomes to the upper middle class. Everyone is starting to believe that the system is not fair and concentrates power in the hands of a few. 2008 was a big wake up call and the last 8 years of public policy a confirmation that the system favors the few.

If people think that the economy is rigged they are also are starting to believe that the political system and the press is rigged.  Trump supporters are frustrated and angry toward the press for their negative coverage of Donald Trump and they are honestly completely right.  Just look at the stories coming out of CNN and almost everyone else not called FOX News. It’s all day and nothing but women harassed by Trump and lewd comments in a bus non stop. Absolutely radio silence about Clinton and  Wikileaks.  Bernie Sanders supporters are not too happy as well with the coverage and revelations about how their candidate was treated by the DNC and the Clinton campaign.

Trump has for 3 debates and for months pushed that Clinton is the establishment and is pro free trade. Thanks to Wikileaks that has been confirmed.  He has been surprisingly on message these last few weeks hammering the previous points and using the Wikileaks emails as much as he can. In the next few weeks almost anything can happen surprise wise and I do believe that Wikileaks is not done yet and possibly preparing the biggest scandals for the last week.

So take disillusion with the economy, the political system and the press and sprinkle some of the lowest approval and likability rating on record for candidates, a dash of higher then expected polling numbers for independents and add low voter turn outs and a whole lot of f*** you votes and we got another Brexit.

After the news that premiums are going to go up by 25% for the Affordable Care Act next year how many of you would like to send a big f*** you message?

 

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