Trump won and won big with not only swing states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina but in the rust belt as well.  Why? The economy stupid. The entire election was based on how people feel about the economy and their future. The result was bigger than I expected. I taught he would pick up Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and Michigan based on how well Sanders did there. Wisconsin was a surprise and Pennsylvania was a bigger win then I expected. So what should we learn from this?

Pollster can get it wrong just like Brexit. They give too much importance to incumbents and to establishment big players.  They tend to drink their own cool aid like the press. I have been saying for months,  Trump can win it because the same ailments that fell upon Brits after 2008 can be seen in America.  People gave President Obama 2 mandates and I was always mad that he squandered it on health care that honestly was a big issue in this campaign even if the press never covered it. He said we would disengage from the Middle East and that never happened (Libya. Yemen and Syria are in ruin, Al Qaeda is stronger then ever, Iran is a big player, and we still losing lives in Afghanistan). He talk a lot of about Wall Street but his entire administration was jam packed with Clinton’s Citi Group surrogates. No one was blamed or held accountable for the 2008 and we are basically back where we started with too big to fail banks, derivatives, over emphasis on Wall Street versus main street.  I vote for Obama but like many feel disappointed with his lack of achievements.  Yeah yeah the Republicans obstructionism didn’t help but the first 2 years he had no excuse to jam a real and effective economic plan. Instead he filled the pockets of hedge fund managers with free Fed money.

Trump spoke to the grievance of the middle class just like Nigel Farage in the UK for Brexit and Obama in 2008. But now people don’t want just talk they want real change that will benefit them.  Trump has, with this election, a clear and unparalleled mandate not seen since Nixon in 1972. The Republicans owe him for  taking the Senate and the House without giving him any support (More like stabbing him at every turn) and the Democrats in disarray and demoralized. It is up to him to use it or squander it. I expect that he will be more of a doer (tax cuts, big infrastructure bill, repeal of Obamacare) but don’t expect him to be perfect. He is still Donald Trump so expect some WTF did he just say?

So the lesson is?  The economy stupid always was always will.

The good news is that in this election big money didn’t win. Clinton and surrogates raised over $1.3 billion while Trump did it on the cheap a little over $700 million and really only $250 million because the rest really wasn’t spent on him but more on Senate/House Elections.

 

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