This new year brings hope or the biggest upheaval in 30 years and it will most likely be based on what President Elect Trump decides to do.  Yikes. The phrase “we are in for a roller coaster ride” is a major understatement so fasten your seat belt and keep your hands in at all times.

I earlier predicted that Saudi Arabia is ripe for a coup which will hopefully happen swiftly and with a limited amount of bloodshed. The coup will rattle markets and bring the dollar crashing down and push oil prices up. If the coup is successful it will bring more stability to the middle east and the end of the war in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. If it fails then we might see a blood thirsty Saudi Arabia  lash out at Iran and the United States and continue its wars with a vengeance by supplying extremists with MANPADS and the latest TOW ATGMs. The worse outcome would be a split in the country and a civil war. At that point God help us because if you think that Syria was a cluster fuck then imagine Saudi Arabia. Bahrain would fall, Iran will would get involved to support Shias, the U.S. would invade, every jihadists with a pulse would jump in and you can kiss your car goodbye because you will not afford a tank of gas. Hopefully we will wake up one day and find the current King the hospital and his son grieving at his side (house arrest) and relinquishing all his duties to the Prince heir.

Elections in France and Germany will see a surge of nationalist (not LePen) that will bring about major political change within the EU and relations with Russia. The EU powers will accept a Russo Turkish peace agreement in Syria that will keep Assad in power for several years and Turkey’s right to clamp down on Kurdish aspirations. The big loser in all this? Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, Israel and the CIA. Erdogan is ready to throw all his allies including the FSA under the bus to get some kind of victory against the the Kurds. 

The big question is, will Israel resist the urge to attack Hezbollah? The thinking would be to strike them before a peace  will let them transfer more military technology and equipment and strike before they refocus on northern Israel would be the underlying strategy. The problem is that if Israel had problems in 2006 imagine now with a much stronger, 5 year battle tested and better equipped Hezbollah. The result of this war would be a disaster for all. Southern and central Lebanon will be destroyed and much of northern Israel as well. The IDF will sustain major casualties with no real strategic objectives reached.It will be another war that achieves nothing except strengthening Hezbollah and Iran.

Another result of a peace deal in Syria will be the return of tens of thousands of jihadists around the world. The result will be a jump in terrorism especially in Europe and North Africa. Countries such as France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Lybia, Tunisia, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia will witness unprecedented terrorist attacks. These countries will face harsh realities and will crack down on returning jihadists and unfortunately in Europe on Muslim communities making the situation worse.

In Asia, a North Korean ICBM test capable of reaching past the Hawaiian islands and another SLBM launch will push South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.  to deploy more anti missile systems to the region that will anger more China and Russia. This will lead to more confrontations in the South China sea and a major investment in both countries in new more capable nuclear deterrents. We could be seeing a major jump in nuclear weapon stock piles in the near future. This comes on top of the stated President Elect wishes to strengthen the U.S. nuclear arsenal. I have always said that the decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty was idiotic and plays into North Korea’s hand while threatening Russia and China. All they have to do is launch a missile or two and then sit back and watch China and the U.S. fight over ABM while they sit back and watch insuring the regime’s survival.

2017 is the year of Trump because how he will manage all these changes will either be fantastic or the end of us. If he does a good job we might get threw it unscaved or begin a dangerous slide into more military engagements and muscle flexing around the world not by just this incoming administration but many others that will follow. When all empires start to lose influence and power they all tend to start wars to show that they are still string and relevant. Recent events have demonstrated that other countries have near abroad interests that they are willing to flex and spend military and political capital on and that they are more and more willing to call on our bluffs. So good luck to you President Elect and to the world we are in dangerous times but times of opportunities as well. Let’s reset before one bluff too many is called.

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