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Are you out there protesting at JFK and around other airports across the US? Then you are probably a hypocrite. You are one because where were you when:

President Obama let in less then 1,600 refugees from Syria between 2012 to 2015 while sending more then that number of TOW anti tank missiles to be smuggled to armed groups including jihadists in that country. He grew a conscience in 2016 during the election and let in a little over 12,000 when it was politically advantageous to contrast Demcrats to Republicans. I wonder how many ATGM he send that year?

How many refugees from Yemen have we let in while we sent millions of tons of cluster bombs, missiles, and various arms to the Saudi led coalition to drop on Yemen’s cities. We coordinated with the Saudis and shared  with them target information and intelligence and let’s be honest their Air Force can not fly without American ground maintenance and support. The people of Yemen of starving and being bombed left and right but we say nothing because our good friends the Saudis (that gave us 9/11)  is doing the bombing.Kinda funny that we are helping to bomb the same guy that help us bomb Al Qaeda . 

Where were you while thousands of Iraqis that helped US troops during our uninvited stay in Iraq doing everything from washing toilets to translating waited for a visas to flee the country. They are viewed as traitors and have been hunted down by Shia militias and Jihadists alike. We only let in a few while the rest are living in constant fear. As I remember it President Obama that penned a ban on Iraqis when he took office.

We helped an insurgency in Sudan that has now left the country without 80% of oil revenues that it used to have and helped to create a new country that has seen non stop violence and ethnic fighting. As soon as South Sudan got its independence they started fighting each other and we just sit back and watched.

In Somalia we helped destroy the state by pushing that country and it’s dictator Barre to invade Ethiopia in 1978. The result was a disaster for Barre who never recovered but was maintained in power as long as the Cold War lasted and access to bases was needed. Once the wall came down so did Barre and poof the country disintegrated and never recovered. Ironically we then pushed Ethiopia to invade. Guess what goes around comes around.

Instead of being hypocrites recognise that the U.S. government just banned 7 countries of which 5 we are bombing. So we create the refugees and in most cases don’t take them in even if they worked for us and then ban them. So do you see the hypocrisy in all this? In the last 16 years we have been responsible for the bulk of the refugee problem in the world and have taken the least amount of refugees but the ban on 7 countries is upsetting you. Lets run out and call it  a Muslim ban. If it was a Muslim ban it would of included Saudi Arabia, a country that has killed more Americans than any other country in terrorist acts and has financed terrorist organizations currently active around the world and send  a bulk of the jihadists out there today. But no they have oil, massive investments in the US and nearly a trillion dollars in T bills. So let’s focus on Libya, Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Sudan, and Yemen. Countries that are either depended on our military help or have almost no  trade with the U.S. and therefore of little consequences. But continue calling it a Muslim ban if that makes you feel better about yourself.

 US foreign policy has resulted or played a role in almost every failed state that we have today such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and South Sudan but we take few refuges from those countries but now Trump is in power and puts a 90 day ban so you say that it is racist. Come on its been racist all along and if we are going to be racist at least stop bombing countries to a point of a failed state so we don’t  create so many refugees so we won’t feel bad when we won’t take them in.

Good news world. Hopefully there will be enough in fighting in the US that will keep it paralyzed for the next 4  years so it won’t go fight anyone else.keep your finger crossed.


A little advice. Sit down and listen. A safe zone for Syrian refugees is fine just not in Syria. Any act to force the create of safe zones by the U.S. Military will be viewed as a hostile act by the Syrian and Russian government. Do not believe for a second that Turkey went in to Northern Syria without Russian and Syrian consent. They made a deal to give Turkey the ability to separate YPG forces and the opportunity unity to deal them a crushing blow by forcing US hands to abandon them in the face of Turkish aggression. In return Syria and Russia got Turkey to agree to accepting Aleppo’s fall, Assad staying, and abandoning the FSA once they finish being cannon fauder in the fight against ISIS.  Turkey is fact screwed the U.S. and went rogue and that is why the Turkish air force  planes are not falling out of the not  from

The Iraqis, the Turks could both close their airspace if we decide to pursue this policy making the enforcement of the safe zone impossible. We would also be nearly impossible to reinforce a safe zone (idlib and Aleppo province) without destroying Syrian and Russian air defense systems in western Syria. The first would be easy the later more painful and could not result without Russian loss of life. This would be an act of war and please remind you that any war with Russia would go nuclear within hours. Neither side could accept defeat which only leaves the nuclear option on the table.  Your previous foe, hillary Clinton also wanted to create safe zones and I taught then that the idea was idiotic and dangerous. So listen up. Stop listening to some Republican hawks and repeat after me: ” I will not be a dumbfuck. Syria is a lost cause. I owned casinos and I know what a bad bet is and safe zones are a stupid idea because I will be last President of the United States”.

Got it! If you want safe zones tell Jordan to create one on their side of the border. Or how about forcing Saudi Arabia to take some refugees in or better yet ask them to stop funding jihadists.honestly safe zones already exist and they are called Syrian government controlled areas. We could end this war quickly if we just stop listen to the hawks like McCain and force Qatar and Saudi Arabia to stop funding jihadists but won’t happen anytime soon.

The US, Turkey, Israel and even now Saudi Arabia have all come to the conclusion that regime change is no longer possible in Syria. The Israelis are now trying to convince Syrians near the Golan to renounce extremist groups and fight them. Wow that’s a 180. Erdogan is now hopping Russia and Syria’s Tiger forces are going to come and save the Turkish Army and the incompetent FSA in Al Bab. The US is in foreign policy crisis and shambles with no one with a clue running the state department or the CIA. Saudi Arabia is busy buying back captured Saudi IS fighters (a booming trade in Syria and Turkey) and looking for others who have returned to Saudi Arabia.

In the last few days, Al-Nusra has been crushing FSA factions left and right in Idlib province creating the possibility of an alliance between the U.S. and Russia in order to save the FSA from being wiped out.  US hands might just be tied leaving no choice but to play ball with Putin if not Assad will sit back and watch the FSA be destroyed.

The days of dreaming about overthrowing Assad are over. I know that many in Langley are weeping in a corner. They have been trying to overthrow Syrian regimes since the late 40s unsuccessfully but now they are more worried about the upcoming war with the Trump administration.  He tried the olive branch in his first day but that didn’t work out so well so plan B will be to cut enough heads off to create fear and compliance within the rank and file. 

The war in Syria has changed with Iran and Russia the clear victors. The gulf states, Israel,  and the West did everything they could for regime change but at the end could not push the urban Sunnis and the upper middle class to their side. hundred of thousand of dead Syrians, million injured, millions of refugees, Brexit, the EU about to collapse, a much stronger Irajln and Russia, and Donald Trump president. That is what your stupid regime change policy in Syria got you.

PS Putin has his eyes on Lybia which he will turn around with the help of Egypt and possibly Algeria if they are not bogged down with a succession issue in 2017. Kiss the Tripoli UN backed government goodbye and your CIA man in Benghazi just defected. Stupid is as stupid those. Since the 90s, I have been wondering who has been running US foreign policy and I have come to the conclusion that it has been a bunch of idiots that have zero understanding of culture, history, politics. 

The democratic party is full of itself.  Your belief in moral superiority is your downfall. This election cycle should have taught you the lesson. You lost the White House,the Senate, the House, 32 governorships, 2/3 of state houses. Either the Democratic party is badly led or it is surrounded by “YES” men that has made them delusional.  This year you stacked the system in your favor by controlling or having on your side the press, big money donors, labor unions, and even parts of the Republican party and still lost to Donald Trump. 

The Russian didn’t hack the DNC (according to people that know the source) and RT’s US viewership is so small (According to the Washington Post) that it is ridiculous to even pretend that Russia in any way shape of form decided the election. A third of the unclassified report was dedicated to RT and basically saying it was an arm of the Kremlin. Wow tax payer money telling me that a state own press touts the state line like the BBC, Al Jazeera, France24 and basically all state own news organizations. We have the pro US news channels that we the tax payers don’t pay for it so at least we are lucky to save money. Then the report started shinning about RT and it’s fake news (because US bloggers have not been doing it). All this bad anti US propaganda was brainwashing the poor American voter that couldn’t understand what the letters RT stand for. So big bad RT influenced the election but wait the the Washington Post came out with an article saying that their viewership while growing is still insignificant.   Either RT is is a small network with little viewership or a behemoth that can brainwash a large swash of the American electorate. Do you see how the U.S. press (proven to be cozy with the DNC by the hacks) is being ridiculous.which is it? But they influenced (with a disclaimer that the NSA is only moderately sure) the election so let’show our outrage.

I don’t remember outrage when Iran did influence the Election in 1979 by not releasing our hostages until after the election or when the Soviets did influence the election in 1960 by not releasing Americans and giving Nixon a bump. No one went out in the street calling Kennedy or Reagan manchurian candidates or eligitimate. The reaction today is farcicle and ridiculous with very idiotic and let’s be honest made up claims with 0 evidence. Even the Intelligence report came with a disclaimer that basically said nothing was proven, certain, verified, and or 100%.The false claims in 2003 for the Iraq War were slightly better written. But let us trust these guys again.

Was is not ridiculous and is dangerous is the CIA’s willful undermining during and after the election of a Presidential Candidate and President Elect. current and former CIA directors and agents were paraded in front of cameras yelling at us that Clinton is a no brained slam dunk and that Trump is dangerous. They also said we should do everything possible to kill Russians in Syria even if we have to arm people we know will turn their weapons on us eventually and we are sure (unlike the Intelligence report) that the so called moderates would be overrun by extremists if As was fell and therefore result in a failed state that would make Somalia look like Disney Land . We tried arming islamists in the 80s and we all know what happened.

If I was Trump on day one of my presidency I would sack the top leadership of the CIA and move much of its power to the Pentagon as a signal that descent and rebellion within a civilian agency and interference in elections is unacceptable and those who do will be accountable. The CIA did everything in its power with Hillary Clinton to create their own foreign policy and force POTUS to follow along. In my mind this is treasonous. From Egypt, to Lybia, to Ukraine, to Syria the CIA has made decisions and changed  facts on the ground contrary to what Potus said and wanted (thank you President Obama without you resisting them it would of been worse but you should of known not to trust the Clinton gang). So President Elect Trump my advice is to drain Langley first before they drag you into a disastrous foreign policy conflict.

Hanging chad – not my president

Born in Kenya – not my president

Russia hacked the election – not my president

Are you seeing a trend? since 2000, our democracy has been attacked and not blithe Russians but from the inside. Political parties have over and over attacked each other by demonizing and then delegitimizing their opponents without caring about the future of our democratic system. We are facing an uncertain future where our democracy is at risk. 

The media doesn’t do it’s job and is clearly a tool of parties and corporations as evident by wikileaks. They are no longer independent and have stopped doing journalist work since the late 80s.  They toe the official line, with few exceptions here and there, and never question the facts that are presented to them.  For example the keyboard used in the DNC hack was Cyrillic (because only Russians have a Cyrillic language keyboards and FSB, GRU spies are too dumb to mask their trail). So reporters go ahead and printand ignore that the FBI never inspected the severs or the code and relies on the word of a company that was paid by the DNC which refused any government agency access to their systems. So let’s ignore facts and accept the word of the intelligence services which has never led us astray or given us false information because they they always tell the truth.

By doing this we are again deviding the country and undermine the democratic process. If the  Russians did or did not back the election it is irrelevant and is by itself a fake story created to undermine Trump. Intelligence services from day one wanted Hillary Clinton elected and attacked him on his position to not get involved in Syria. They hated President Obama for not doing more in Syria and have been screaming for change in the White House. We have never seen such a over move by the CIA and others to change and manipulate policy and policy makers. This is dangerous and unprecedented. Time to drain Langly.

This new year brings hope or the biggest upheaval in 30 years and it will most likely be based on what President Elect Trump decides to do.  Yikes. The phrase “we are in for a roller coaster ride” is a major understatement so fasten your seat belt and keep your hands in at all times.

I earlier predicted that Saudi Arabia is ripe for a coup which will hopefully happen swiftly and with a limited amount of bloodshed. The coup will rattle markets and bring the dollar crashing down and push oil prices up. If the coup is successful it will bring more stability to the middle east and the end of the war in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. If it fails then we might see a blood thirsty Saudi Arabia  lash out at Iran and the United States and continue its wars with a vengeance by supplying extremists with MANPADS and the latest TOW ATGMs. The worse outcome would be a split in the country and a civil war. At that point God help us because if you think that Syria was a cluster fuck then imagine Saudi Arabia. Bahrain would fall, Iran will would get involved to support Shias, the U.S. would invade, every jihadists with a pulse would jump in and you can kiss your car goodbye because you will not afford a tank of gas. Hopefully we will wake up one day and find the current King the hospital and his son grieving at his side (house arrest) and relinquishing all his duties to the Prince heir.

Elections in France and Germany will see a surge of nationalist (not LePen) that will bring about major political change within the EU and relations with Russia. The EU powers will accept a Russo Turkish peace agreement in Syria that will keep Assad in power for several years and Turkey’s right to clamp down on Kurdish aspirations. The big loser in all this? Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, Israel and the CIA. Erdogan is ready to throw all his allies including the FSA under the bus to get some kind of victory against the the Kurds. 

The big question is, will Israel resist the urge to attack Hezbollah? The thinking would be to strike them before a peace  will let them transfer more military technology and equipment and strike before they refocus on northern Israel would be the underlying strategy. The problem is that if Israel had problems in 2006 imagine now with a much stronger, 5 year battle tested and better equipped Hezbollah. The result of this war would be a disaster for all. Southern and central Lebanon will be destroyed and much of northern Israel as well. The IDF will sustain major casualties with no real strategic objectives reached.It will be another war that achieves nothing except strengthening Hezbollah and Iran.

Another result of a peace deal in Syria will be the return of tens of thousands of jihadists around the world. The result will be a jump in terrorism especially in Europe and North Africa. Countries such as France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Lybia, Tunisia, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia will witness unprecedented terrorist attacks. These countries will face harsh realities and will crack down on returning jihadists and unfortunately in Europe on Muslim communities making the situation worse.

In Asia, a North Korean ICBM test capable of reaching past the Hawaiian islands and another SLBM launch will push South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.  to deploy more anti missile systems to the region that will anger more China and Russia. This will lead to more confrontations in the South China sea and a major investment in both countries in new more capable nuclear deterrents. We could be seeing a major jump in nuclear weapon stock piles in the near future. This comes on top of the stated President Elect wishes to strengthen the U.S. nuclear arsenal. I have always said that the decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty was idiotic and plays into North Korea’s hand while threatening Russia and China. All they have to do is launch a missile or two and then sit back and watch China and the U.S. fight over ABM while they sit back and watch insuring the regime’s survival.

2017 is the year of Trump because how he will manage all these changes will either be fantastic or the end of us. If he does a good job we might get threw it unscaved or begin a dangerous slide into more military engagements and muscle flexing around the world not by just this incoming administration but many others that will follow. When all empires start to lose influence and power they all tend to start wars to show that they are still string and relevant. Recent events have demonstrated that other countries have near abroad interests that they are willing to flex and spend military and political capital on and that they are more and more willing to call on our bluffs. So good luck to you President Elect and to the world we are in dangerous times but times of opportunities as well. Let’s reset before one bluff too many is called.

Thanks to the Syrian Arab Armies and its Russian, Iranian and Shia allies, Christians can celebrate Christmas in Syria.  The defeat of extremists exported by Gulf Countries has been achieved in Aleppo and hopefully will soon mean the end to Syrian war.  Turkey has shifted its alliance and decided that blocking Kurdish aspirations is more critical and important to regime change. President Obama has also chosen the path that would hurt the United States the least by concluding that a Al Nusra victory is not a US victory.

Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the CIA  have been sidelined but at the end will realized that it is a good thing and should be thankful. Why should they be thankful?

For Israel, they can continue to live in peace with their neighbors and will not have to face in the future Islamist mercenaries located in a failed state sitting across from them on the Golan Height.  They will have nothing to fear from Israeli airstrikes since they have no value fro human life or care about civilians and infrastructure.  Israel would face an enemy that doesn’t care about anything except striking out. Hezbollah, Iran, Syria all face political realities at home that make their behavior logical and planned. The bearded fanatics have none and trade jokes and smiles before drying off in their suicide vehicles. Who would Israel rather deal with in the long term?

Saudi Arabia would also have to face these extremists if they win in Syria. Do the Saud truly believe that regime change in Syria is the only goal for these career Jihadists? They would be emboldened and ready to come home to burn down the palaces. A mad dog will sooner or later bite the hand that feeds him.

The CIA, a bunch of short sided bunch of assholes, will sooner or later be glad that no Congressional hearings will be held asking them to answer why a bunch of Jihadists flew a plane into another building somewhere in the US and why they all came from Syria. Unfortunately the later is still possible because we are about to witness the largest exodus of well trained Jihadists in history. I suggest that President Elect Trump beats down the CIA and some in the Pentagon to accept full cooperation with the Russians, Assad and the Iranians to wipe out these Jihadists before they go off and wage a war against the West and the house of Saud.



The CIA is claiming that the Russians have hacked the election and interfered in the US election but should we believe them (they are the CIA so they do lie – heck its their job). So how did they influence the election? Fake news.

Yes fake news or better know as don’t always believe what you read on the internet. The media has jumped on this story with major embarrassment. The Washington Post came out with a story about fake news that turned out to be fake news itself. The Washington Post on a McCarthy which hunt used the information from a so called group of experts, PROPORNOT, that named over 200 sites and blogs Russian propaganda without showing any proof or explanation. This article was of such low journalistic integrity that the Washington Post after growing pressure and law suits was forced to add a lengthy editor’s note to the story with the following section of particular interest:


What the Post is saying is that we didn’t check anything, we didn’t call anyone to verify the information nor did we call the sites to get a quote. They basically abdicated they journalistic ethics for a fake story. There has been a widespread abandonment of press responsibilities in the United States which has been going on for decades. Gone are the days of Walter Cronkite that will tell the people the truth and present the facts no matter where it would lead. These days I never believe anything they say anymore. I verify the facts that are presented which usually  is the official narrative from the government, special interest groups, or their corporate sponsors. The official text is regurgitated and differs very little from State controlled media in many other countries that we criticize.

Fake stories are not new and this idea that Russia was behind it is just ridiculous. Since the birth of internet, wackos, conspiracy buffs, alternative viewpoints have always been there. All of a sudden, these same people that have had a voice online for years are considered FSB sleeper agents. The main press has always ignored them and ridiculed them and now jump at every word they write calling it proof of a grander Russian conspiracy.

If the CIA report is true (which very difficult to prove) than the Russian are brilliant masters of propaganda that we should just surrender to them since they got their mole into the White House.  These journalists and pundits are threatening our democracy by creating the fake news that President Trump is a Russian spy or a best a lackey.  This is in my view treason because 0 and I mean 0 evidence exists that the Russian hacked into the voting machines or bought votes or manipulated votes in anyway. By repeating this narrative day after day is only undermining the presidency of the United States. By repeating this narrative (repeat a lie enough and it becomes true) while at the same time giving credence to protesters and recount efforts is undermining the peaceful transition of power that we have enjoyed for over 200 years. If you didn’t like the outcome of the election that is understandable but to advocate for new elections line former CIA Officer turned CNN intelligence analyst Bob Baer is dangerous.

I fear the CIA is so obsessed with helping Jihadists in Syria that they are willing to undermine our democracy to the point of rebellion instead of accepting that the American people have voted for someone that will not seek idiotic adventures overseas and will pull out of Syria.  The CIA has had in the last 60 years close ties to Islamic fundamentalists and has always viewed Jihadist as tools to be used to combat communism and Arab nationalism. The entire idea was to use the Muslim populations in the southern central Asian to turn against the Soviet Union and to turn the Muslim brotherhood against Abdel Nasser of Egypt and nationalists in Syria and across the middle east. This policy has been re-purposed to overthrow regimes in Libya and in Syria but just with Afghanistan in the 80s, Jihadists are difficult to control. mutate and tend to turn against the hand that feeds them.


The most ironic thing is that the CIA report is basically whining about Russian hacking that revealed the interference and collusion by the DNC, large corporations, the rich, lobby groups and establishment players in trying to influence the American people in voting for Hillary Clinton. They pushed from day one that her victory was a “fait accompli” and we should all fall in line. Where are the calls for an investigation in media and DNC collusion? Where are the calls for an investigation of the DNC for doing everything possible to sabotage Bernie Sanders to include espionage a la Watergate?

At the end, if the Russians tried to influence our election I would not be surprised. We tried to influence their elections especially in 2011 (Putin was furious at Hillary Clinton) and we shouldn’t cry about it like babies when they do a better job of it. We have influenced elections, bought off dictators and overthrown regimes for over two centuries so when someone else tries to do the same to us we should be a little more sportsman like since it is all a great game.

Before the FBI reopening the investigation the polls were tightening already. Most pollsters, who already have been facing major headaches in accuracy lately, are scratching their heads trying to figure out the impact of the investigation on the election. What is not being factored in is the impact of wikileaks emails dumps on daily basis. I would think that the daily trickle of revelations. must be exhausting the pollsters who have just decided to ignore it. 

They shouldn’t since this is the equivalent of 1000 cuts that is slowly bleeding the morale of Clinton supporters and independents leaning democrat. On a daily basis, they are bombarded with negative news and reminders of the bad judgements of Hillary Clinton.After a while, like or not, humans tend to link things together and form a pattern. The human brain is wired to recognize patterns and shapes. Plenty of studies in psychology and marketing have studied pattern recognition and the use of repetition. Ignoring it doesn’t make it go away. The email revelations are a huge morale sucker and have been sucking the enthusiasm for the Clinton campaign for weeks now. 

The FBI reopening the case is a vindication of what has come out from Wikileaks. For weeks we had smoke from Wikileaks and the fire was supplied by the FBI.So even if people have been ignoring the email leaks the FBI bombshell will make then reevaluate them or at least recognize their existence.Impact:

  1. Young vote will as usual be insignificant because of disillusionment
  2. Voters on the fence for Trump will vote Trump
  3. Voters on the fence for Clinton will not vote and a few for Trump
  4. Republican enthusiasm is growing and lead to larger turn out
  5. Democrats morale is dropping and lead to lower turn out

outcome will be  Trump win. This is the Brexit all over again with pollsters not taking into account disillusionment and a will to stick it to the system. This election thanks to Wikileaks is really about the system, and Clinton  is the system.

Mosul is an important city of 1.8 million in predominantly Sunni area of Iraq. The question is what will all the major players in the battle to retake it from Daesh do after it is retake from Daesh? The kurds, Turks, Iraqi government, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Shia militias, Sunnis, Russia and the United States all have different agendas. The question of the city’s future is also the question of Iraq’s future.  Will the parties come together to find compromise for peace or is it just another reason for continuous war and animosity between rival interests? Let’s look at the interests of the major players and his they differ.

The Sunnis want control of the city and have it be the capital of either a independent state or autonomous province of Iraq. The Sunnis since the fall of Saddam have been sidelined by Iranian backed parties and militias. They feel that their power has been eroded and their control of the country taken away. This explains why Mosul was quickly taken over by Daesh with the cooperation of local tribes which either fought with or stayed on the sidelines and watch the Iraqi Army flee the city.  To this group we must add former Baath party members and former Saddam Hussein army loyalist to the batch of Daesh collaborators. Will they continue their support for subversive actions against the Iraqi central government or try to reconcile? I believe that they will do the later only because they are in a weaken position and cannot by themselves take the city let alone the province of Anbar back without a disastrous consequences to the Sunnis population living there. Their hope lies with the pressure the United States, Turkey and Saudi Arabia taking an active role to negotiate favorable terms for a autonomous province. The Iraqi Kurds will also favor this in my mind to lessen the reach of the central government and stay in good terms with Turkey and the United States.

Iran would like to increase the control and influence of the Iraqi government further north but they also have good relations with the Iraqi Kurds and would be amiable to a weak Anbar province with some autonomy but still firmly under the control of Bagdad. Their main interest would be to pacify the province, marginalize the Sunnis without causing another rebelion. Another step would be to use the Shia militias and potentially the Iraqi in an offensive on the Syria-Iraqi border against Daesh. They could push on to Deir Ezzooz in the hopes of relieving the surrounded Syrian Army there. This will make the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar uneasy and difficult for them to support such a push that will aid Assad and potentially drive thousands of Daesh foreign fighters home to Europe. Tens of thousands of militias and Iraqi Army troops crossing the border could potentially free up the Syrian Army to concentrate on other groups especially in province of Aleppo the which could mean the defeat of the opposition and any chance of regime change.

The Saudis and I would have to add the Gulf States would like to see Daesh survive and live to fight another day. This would be their first choice. They would like to maintain a level of conflict in Iraq in order to tie up Iranian Shia militias and the Queds Force in Anbar. This make them split resources between Iraq and Syria and limit their effectiveness. If Daesh is pushed out of Iraq they would do everything possible to stop the Iraqi Army from pursuing them into Syria via diplomatic pressure and Security Council resolutions. But Russian veto will make this vertually  impossible. Their only recourse will be to try to either spur another rebellion or more overtly arm and finance Daesh. The first will be more difficult without direct US support and the later more likely.

The United States will try to bring everyone at the table but will have a hard time getting all the different parties together. Another issue is can the US  even find or create a unified Iraqi Sunni leadership to sit at the table? The Kurds and the Shia will most likely find faults or deligilimatize anyone the U.S. will sit in front of them.The U.S. will find an ally in Turkey and Saudi Arabia but their interests are not aligned with ours. This will be an uphill battle to get anything resembling a truely autonomous Anbar province whereby the Sunnis don’t feel betrayed. The US will also try to block any attempt by Shia militias and the Iraqi Army to push to the border. Damascus would certainly give a public and under international law a legal invitation to Bagdad to cross the border to chase Daesh. This will be an embarrassment to Washington and very difficult to publicly denounce since it would be in the name of defeating Daesh a public policy of the United States for years now. 

Russia only cares about Russia. It does not see Iran’s rising influence in the region as a threat and actually welcomes it in order to undermine US hegemony in the area, weaken Saudi Arabia, contain Islamists in Afghanistan and the Middle East and last of all but very importantly make sure that natural gas never flows from the Gulf all the way to Europe.Russia would welcome central government control over Mosul and any push into Syria by the Iraqis. Recently the Russians have made overtures to Ankara as well as to the Kurds both in Syria and Iraq. Any move by Turkey to placate the Kurds will surely be made with grand statements of supports for Kurdish rights. The Russians are the ones with the least to lose but will be winners no matter the outcome in Mosul and because of this will support and undermine all parties simultaneously.

For Turkey the issue is how best to maintain Sunni control of Anbar, weaken Iran and Assad, keep the Iraqi Kurds in check, and not seem to be aiding Daesh. This would be literally a catch 22. If they support the Sunnis too much the Kurds will feel betrayed for not gaining anything. This will make their policy of not aiding their brothers in Syria more difficult for their populace to continue to accept.The Iranian government will be more confrontational with Turkey and could push for move involvement in Syria. If they abandon the Sunnis then an Iranian backed government wins more control and the Kurds will seize the opportunity for expantion. Their best bet would be to let all win but not too much. A weaken Sunni minority with some autonomy, an Iarqi central government mostly back in control of Anbar and some territorial consentions to the Kurds. A tough pill to swallow to say the least and even harder to balance.

Another party to this great game as some have called is Israel. They have been able to mostly stay out of the limelight but have been engaged quietly in the the Middle East chaos. The Mossad and the IDF has been covertly acting in the conflict from giving medical support to rebels on the Golen Heights, to occasionally bombing Syrian targets and assassinating Hezbollah fighters, and supplying weapons and intelligence to various groups fighting Assad. Based on speeches of several current and former military and intelligence officers, they would like nothing more then to have the war continue in Syria and in Iraq to bleed and occupy Iran and Hezbollah. For them the war is not about Daesh or even Assad but the fear of growing Iranian influence on their door step. They will try to continue the destabilization of both countries in order to check Iran even if it means Daesh surviving.

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